AHL Playoff Probabilities - Eastern North

Wondering if your team is going to make the playoffs? I'm here for you. Using the current standings, recent play and team goal differential, I am going to assign every team a % chance of making the playoffs, and I will also attempt to accurately guess which seed each team will land in at the end of the season! I will be doing this for every division.

(Please keep in mind this is mostly an opinion piece, although I am using the standings and statistics to guide my opinion)

I hope you all enjoy!

Eastern North

1. Belleville Senators
1 Seed Probability: 100%
2 Seed Probability: 0%
3 Seed Probability: 0%
4 Seed Probability: 0%
Total Playoff chances: 100%

It'll be a second straight 65 win season for the baby Sens in all likelihood, and they are a lock for the best record in the league for the second consecutive year as well. There isn't going to be a team like Hartford from S16 that gets a million NHL send downs to stop them either, so teams better start praying.

2. Toronto Marlies
1 Seed Probability: 0%
2 Seed Probability: 38%
3 Seed Probability: 34%
4 Seed Probability: 28%
Total Playoff chances: 100%

The Marlies have been a constant playoff team all season and there is no way that changes. This team is a lock for the postseason its just a matter of which seed they will get. The 2-4 seeds in this division are all within 3 points of each other so the race is going to be super tight down the stretch. Toronto, Rochester and Syracuse are all going to be fighting to avoid playing Belleville in round 1.

3. Rochester Americans
1 Seed Probability: 0%
2 Seed Probability: 29%
3 Seed Probability: 30%
4 Seed Probability: 41%
Total Playoff chances: 100%

Three points behind 2nd and tied for 3rd place, the Americans have been a surprise team this season. Muzzin has done a great job with this team despite being handed the job just 2-3 days before bidding, he should be a front runner for GM of the year in my opinion. They've been on fire down the stretch, winning 20 out of their last 27 including a perfect 9-0 Week 5.

4. Syracuse Crunch
1 Seed Probability: 0%
2 Seed Probability: 33%
3 Seed Probability: 36%
4 Seed Probability: 31%
Total Playoff chances: 100%

The Crunch have been a quietly good team all season. They actually have the best goal differential of the 3 teams fighting for the 2 seed(+56) and I actually give them the highest chance of getting the 3 seed at the moment at 36%. If you haven't figured it out yet, the 4 playoff teams in this division are already decided. It's just a question of seeding. All 4 teams have a 16+ pt lead on 5th place and I can't see any of these teams losing enough to collapse that badly in the final 2 weeks.

Better luck next year

 

#BelievINGHAMTON

 

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